OnPolitics Today: 'I don't really care what happens nationwide'

FROM WASHINGTON AND BEYOND

Tuesday, November 6

Sen. Claire McCaskill, R-Mo.. talks to the media as she campaigns St. Louis, Missouri, on Nov. 5, 2018.

'I care about what happens in this state'

Today could be an Election Day House party for the Democrats. Also in today's edition: What's going down in the Senate and governor races?

Today's subject head comes from Sen. Claire McCaskill, the Democrat facing a tough re-election bid in Missouri.

HAPPY ELECTION DAY, Y'ALL! Did you vote? Can you send us a photo of you with your sticker?

We know what Democrats want tonight: an Election Day House party. The current minority party in both houses of Congress, the Democrats hope to win at least 23 seats to flip the House and two seats to take the Senate. The oddsmakers say Republicans have a good chance to keep their Senate majority, but holding onto control of the House will be a long shot.

And who's bracing himself as this all goes on? President Donald Trump, of course.

Polls have indicated that voters on both sides are fired up and turnout is expected to be high for a midterm election that most are calling a referendum on Trump.

While we prep for what's sure to be a busy night and enjoy another slice of Election Day pizza, we're shaking up the usual newsletter format to tell you what to watch for:

The House races

Nancy Pelosi seemed pretty confident of Democratic victory on Tuesday.

J. Scott Applewhite, AP

Of the 50 congressional districts currently considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, 17 of them are on Eastern Standard Time. The polls will close in those races first, so keep an eye on them (especially the ones in Florida, New Jersey and Virginia).

If they all start breaking for Republicans, that could be a sign that the predicted Democratic wave isn't coming. If they all start turning blue, there is a good chance that trend will continue as the polls close in the West.

Here are five races that could determine how the House shakes out.

The Senate seats

For Republicans to lose control of the Senate, Democrats would have to defend all 26 of their seats that are up for grabs and steal two from the GOP (or some scenario that nets them at least two seats). The pollsters at FiveThirtyEight only put the odds of the Democrats pulling that off at 19.5 percent.

There are three races in the East where Democrats are in tough re-election fights: Florida, Indiana and West Virginia. If they lose even one of those, it could kill their chances. If they drop two or more, Senate Republicans can go ahead and open the champagne.

Governors' races

Stacey Abrams could become the first African-American woman to win a gubernatorial race in U.S. history.

JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY

Most experts predict Democrats will pick up a net of six to eight governorships . Three states now in GOP hands - Illinois, Michigan and New Mexico - appear likely to elect Democratic governors.

And some history may be made on Tuesday.

In Florida, Democrat Andrew Gillum is hoping to become the state's first African-American governor. In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams is trying to become the first black woman governor in U.S. history. Gillum is facing GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, whom President Donald Trump endorsed during the primary. Brian Kemp, Abrams' Republican opponent, got a late campaign visit from Vice President Mike Pence.

Elsewhere in politics

•	Hillary Clinton encourages people to vote: 'Today, we say enough'
•	'Me Voting in 2016 versus Me Voting in 2018': How we really feel about the midterms
•	President Trump delivers misleading diatribe against Brett Kavanaugh accusers at campaign rally
•	82-year-old woman votes for the first time in midterm elections. Then, dies knowing her vote 'counts'
•	Iowa Republican bars 'leftist propaganda' outlet Des Moines Register from election event